Inverted Yield Curve Worries

What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Mean to Investors?

Share This:

Due to the duration risk of holding assets over time, a normal yield curve shows that bonds with a longer maturity have a higher yield and pay more interest than short-term bonds. Investors usually demand higher rates of return if their money is invested for a more extended period.

An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. Under these circumstances, investors will settle for lower returns associated with low-risk long-term debt if they think the economy will enter a recession soon.

Shorter-dated securities are more sensitive to interest rate changes, whereas longer-dated securities are sensitive to an investor’s willingness to participate in the bond market during an increasingly inflationary period. Higher inflation equates to higher borrowing costs and stifles the bond market.

The yield curve bases on Treasury bond performance and an inverted yield curve historically link to economic recessions. The spread on yields between U.S. two-year and U.S. ten-year notes inverts for the first time since 2007. An inverted yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds is the most consistent indicator of a recession and signals to investors a recessionary period is approaching or is already underway. Since 1950, an inverted yield curve has preceded a recession signaling trouble ahead for Wall Street.

What’s to be expected when an inverted yield curve occurs?

  • If the inverted curve lasts month over month, the electronic trading systems absorb the data creating daily market reporting panic. The panic occurs on one day or over several days.
  • Market sell-offs the day the inversion occurs, but a market downturn’s worst effects tend to happen months or even years after.
  • Investors in long-term fixed-income see reduced yields for longer-term investments signaling concern for market volatility as more investors move into short-term bonds.
  • Other metrics negatively impacting include the unemployment rate, wages, new home starts, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer confidence, and increasing consumer debt.
  • During an inverted yield curve, companies have a hard time finding affordable lending to fund operating or expansion, and consumer borrowing costs rise while consumer spending wanes.

Although an inverted yield curve usually signals a recession in the upcoming months, there is no indication of duration and how the U.S. economy or your investments will be affected. If you’re approaching retirement, it’s imperative to consider how your fixed-income investments will fare and if it is time to consider others. If the stock market declines, drawing from fixed-income investments until the market rebounds will be essential for your portfolio’s preservation. Contact us for a portfolio review today!

© 2024 Trajan® Wealth LLC. Nothing in this blog is intended as investment advice, nor is it an offer to buy or sell any security. Please consult your financial advisor for questions about your personal financial situation. All investments involve risk, including the potential for loss. Trajan Wealth clients and employees may have a position in any of the securities mentioned. Portfolio holdings and other data are subject to change at any time and without notice. Additionally, the above links provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an endorsement or an approval by Trajan Wealth, L.L.C., of any of the products, services or opinions of the corporation or organization or individual. Trajan Wealth, L.L.C., bears no responsibility for the accuracy, legality or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links. These materials are for informational and educational purposes and are not designed, nor intended, to apply to any person’s individual circumstances. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition, or particular needs of any specific person. Please consult with your legal and/or tax advisor before making any tax-related decisions.

More
Articles